Ensemble models suggest a continuing very mild west, near average central and mild east coast and Florida pattern, as a phase-locked circulation continues with a persistent ridge along the West coast , a trough in the center, rising to a ridge off the East coast. The forecast for 16-23 is very uncertain though with a great deal of dispersion in the model solutions. This is mainly due to uncertainty about the strength of systems developing over the Pacific and their trajectory toward the west coast.

This week most models due indicate a break in the ridge over the Pacific NW with some much needed rain to that area by the end of the week. Of more significance is a cut-off low that will lift into SoCal, temporarily dropping temperatures over much of the SW and bringing some rain and mountain snows that will spread into the southern plains by Friday.

It will start off quite cool in the NE this week, and should remain cool in the Midwest as a few reinforcing cold fronts drop south from Canada into the area through the week.

Some tropical disturbances, one SE of the Bahamas, and the other over the central Gulf of Mexico, do not look likely to develop into tropical storms this week. The hurricane center gives the Bahamas system a 20% chance. If it does develop, models have in moving SW, which is an unusual track. The gulf system (which is really a stalled frontal boundary) should give plenty of rain to Florida...mainly in the south...this week.

Reported NG injections should be near to slightly lower than average this week.