For the end of the month and into the first week of November, expect temperatures to be above normal in the west and below normal in the east. A ridge is forecast to build, by most reliable models, along the west coast. This will shunt cold Canadian air through the northern plains and the upper mid west that will cross the east coast by the 29th. Temperatures will only gradually moderate over the east during the following 7 days.

This week features active weather with a unseasonably cold system bringing cold rain and mountain snows from the northern California Sierra to the Washington Cascades early in the week, and a tropical system deepening to a Hurricane and threatening Cuba, the Bahamas and possibly southern Florida by the end of the week.

After a cool start over the NE this week, temperatures will gradually moderate through the week as the flow shifts to the south in advance of a strong low pressure system moving NE out of Colorado. Meanwhile, a strong topical storm - probably a Hurricane - will move NNE out of eastern Cuba and into the Bahamas Friday and Saturday, with its closest point of approach to south Florida during the day on Friday. I'm not ruling out a hit on the SE Florida coast yet. In the West, deep, cold low pressure in the upper atmosphere will gradually push east, generating the development of a Colorado low by Wednesday that will track to the NE for the remainder of the week. In its wake, a "polar express" push of very cold air will drive south through the northern plains, reaching from mid Texas to Chicago by Saturday and Montreal to Jacksonville by Sunday. The SW will remain mild but SoCal is likely to experience its first "Santa Ana" wind event of the season in the latter half of the week.

There is a risk that the hurricane will encounter the cold air off the NE by Sunday, generating a very strong "Nor-easter" off the NY coast, but this solution is not yet supported by all the models.