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Re: Trades - Oil/Silverbear *PIC*
In Response To: Trades - Oil ()

Well here is a chart of Dec Crude with my nonsensical fiddle faddle on it. Price broke down below $88 which was important support. You can call it a Head and Shoulder pattern as it could qualify but the main point of the breakdown below $88 is that it broke important support instead of bouncing off of it up again. It should now serve as resistance on any bounce back if it holds below $88 for a bit. And next support is clearly very important which is $78.50 that has been tested several times now over the last year and a half. Note the Modified MACD which is good for major trend direction. It fell below the 0 line and turned up towards the 0 line without crossing the signal line and rolled back down again. That is very bearish and suggests a continuation of the bearish downward trend. It 1st crossed its signal line bearishly in mid September. The seasonal trend that sees Crude top out in mid Aug to mid Sept was right on target and if it continues its long term seasonal trend wont see a low until the late Dec/Jan time frame. Oil 'stocks' tend to bottom later in late Jan to late Feb time frame. This Daily chart doesn't show the other long term support that was tested multiple times at $60 in Jan/06, Sept/06, Jan/07 and Feb/09. As far as using a yearly chart to draw a Symmetrical Triangle that Peter Brandt did that is a bit of a stretch as anything I've ever read about chart patterns warns about using too long a time frame for a chart pattern. And even if it was valid only someone like Warren Buffett would have deep enough pockets to play such a long term trend that would take months if not years to play out the pattern. Meanwhile on the very short term note the CCI 20 is below the -200 area which is very oversold so a bounce back is close by in time. If price can remain below the breakdown pt at 88 to confirm the break a bounce back to 88 would be the place to get short. That's what this novice sees here in any case.....................................

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Trades - Oil
Re: Trades - Oil/Silverbear *PIC*
Re: Trades - Oil