BS"D
Good morning,
Looks like the election results have the BBs discomfited with two
massive Bear days in a row. Has the market gone over the "cliff"?
We took a few bites as the long run stair stepped down. Sure glad
we day trade. Position traders are only now certain that the
breakout is for real, and we are already taking it to the bank!
Stall or continue on Friday?
TGIF!!!
DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT
******************************
Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what
is happening, get out!"
******************************
E-mini ES Z2
Thursday 08 November 2012
Thursday morning opens at the Close and runs straight on up through the Pivot.
1 = A 2-bar at the Pivot. Prepare to enter below the PL.
A = We are pulled in below the Pivot. Note the breakout is a 2-candle 123, so consider entry
with multiple contracts.
B = Large red candle through the LowW. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop above
the LowW.
C = S-trap breaks south with a Late-in- the-Move DVS-driven (pink arrow) large red candle
through the Close. PMT stop rules suggest, move the profit-locking stop above the Close.
Stopped out 2 (white) candles later. The Late-in- the-Move DVS warned us to be prepared.
+/- 3.25 points
NOTE: The ABS today is quite large. To avoid getting stopped
out at every Price swing, expand the exit, stop, and Maximum
Profit Giveback (MPG) placements.
Price Action struggles messily at the Close, into lunchtime.
2 = This "P" Signal (2-bar completing on the 3rd candle) qualifies as a PMT "S" Signal.
D = Volume is increasing (purple line), and we enter below the MA with the initial stop above
the MA for well-controlled At Risk.
E = Large red candle. The long bottom wick is unnerving. Per our stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle.
We rely on the proven MA, and successfully weather the S-trap with no need of a special
maneuver.
F = Again a large red candle with an elongated bottom wick. Per PMT stop rules, move the
profit-locking stop above the high of the candle.
G = Yet another large red candle with an elongated bottom wick. Unfortunately, this candle
is sufficiently through the Low that we move our stop above the PL. Otherwise, we would
have successfully weathered the S-trap by applying our new PULL-BACK LOCK-IN S-TRAP
EVASION MANEUVER (To be included in next version of the course books. We'll re-discuss
it next time it is relevant.
Instead, we are stopped out 2-candle later. +/- 2.25 points
3 = Disgruntled at the unfortunate eviction, we struggle with our conscience, wanting to
count both red candles in this s-trap to get a preceding trend for the "P" Reversal at
the MA.
H = Volume bulges (pink arrow), so we yield to our instincts. We are pulled in on a large
red Marubozu. At the close of the candle, move the stop to Free Trade and a tik and sigh
(no rule for sighing).
J = Large red candle. Inch the profit-locking stop tighter. Above the high of the candle
leaves our position in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.
K = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) pumps a large red candle to spike the S1 and retract.
The bottom wick almost recoups enough profit to call it >2.50 points (expanded for large ABS),
but on the other hand, the candle closes below the S1.
Overall, to readers of the tape this combination indicates end of move at a PL. Either exit
immediately, or at least place the stop above the S1 [and get taken out on the next (white
Bull Dragonfly) candle]. +/- 4.0 points
4 = Volume drops back to lunchtime levels (pink arrow), and we pass on this white Bull
Dragonfly "P" off the S1.
Volume remains dormant, and when the S1 holds without any Trading Interest/Volume, we shut
down early (12:40).
After the normal EOD Hiccup Time Zone, a single-bar Hiccup dives for an EOD close 5 full
points below the S1.
PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)
Thursday continued the plummet with another large red candle.
The Expanding Triangle (plum lines) breakout looks for real.
Let's hope today's speech doesn't accelerate the plunge,
which normally would be due to breathe by now. Of course,
Friday's are rarely predictable.
BEWARE OF TRAPS ON FRIDAY!
REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!
Asher
=] ;-)>
Thursday's PMT Chart: