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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

When to Hold 'em *LINK* *PIC*


Good morning,

As we predicted yesterday, " . . . Tuesday taped an average-sized
red day candle, completing a Doji Sandwich at the peak of the
retracement. The Doji dagger stabs into the heart of the signal,
weakening it, so, although we anticipate bearish Price Action
Wednesday, the reversal will most likely yield little more than a
brief price adjustment."

Price Adjustment it was, but the bearish part happened overnight,
without us. Although the bears did extended the room for the bull
run up, the tight PL spacing resulting from Tuesday's narrow
trading range seriously interfered with our trading. We did
score one nice morning trade, but sat out the rest of the day,
our funds well protected by the risk-conservative PMT Money
Management rules.

Enjoy and be well,


Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what
is happening, get out!"

E-mini ES Z2
Wednesday 28 November 2012

Wednesday opens gap-down at the S2, struggles, dips, and returns.

1 = Crisp 123 off the S2.

A = Massive Volume (pink arrow) drives a giant white candle pulling us in and continuing
through the S1/Fib 50% Retracement Level (blue line). Lock in profit, moving the stop
under the blue line.

Price Action stalls atop the S1, swinging back and forth. With profit locked in and our
stop safely nearby, we weather the sideways movement.

B = With a higher low, a large white candle breaks through the Low. Per our stop rules,
move the profit-locking stop under the Low.

C = Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) pumps a large white candle through the Close. PMT
stop rules advise to move the profit-locking stop under the Close. Exhaustion is
evident, so prepare to exit.

The next (red) candle completes a 2- bar Reversal/exit Signal. Got a drop of slippage
+/- 6.25 points

No entries permissible into the narrow S1-Close Price Window.

2 = No entry permitted into the Close (green arrow), nor into the Pivot (orange arrow).
Albeit lunchtime, the 123 atop the Pivot (plum arrow) is somewhat inviting, what with
the high Volume (pink arrow) support. The weak Doji kickoff, however, warns us to hold.

The rest of the day is more lunchtime sideways drift, with a slight updraft at day's end.

(Daily, bottom chart)

Although not much was really accomplished, Wednesday's
large white Bull Dragonfly day candle closes above the
Fibonacci 50% Retracement (blue line), which is at
least not discouraging!

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!


=] ;-)>

Wednesday's PMT Chart: