According to the NAEFS ensemble, most of the lower 48 can expect above average temperatures during the middle of December, but Southeast of a line from NYC to Houston temperatures will be near normal. However there is quite a bit of uncertainty with this outlook. Alternative models suggest that a strong mid-level vortex will form over Hudson bay early next week. This kind of pattern will set up a NW flow from the northern plains and into the Midwest and NE, and a more winter-like temperature pattern will develop over the NE quadrant of the lower 48, centered over the northern plains that will get downright cold on and after the 10th.

This week the Pacific storm track stays active. This morning features a strong storm with a cold front draped across northern CA and NV. The primary low of this system will track ENE into Northeastern Quebec by Tuesday morning, but the strong West -to -east jetstream across the NW tier of states means the cold, or rather cool air (since it has a Pacific rather than a Canadian origin) won't push too far south into the western states, remaining generally N of 40 Degrees N, or a line drawn roughly W-E from San Francisco to a little south of Chicago. East of the Rockies in the vicinity and to the south of the front, rather widespread fog will continue to form in the overnight hours. After the middle of the week the frontal push will get a little stronger and bring a shot of cold drier air to the Great Lakes states and the NE, ending the mild, often foggy, breezy and showery situation that will prevail during the early part of the week. The next strong Pacific storm will hit the Pacific NW Tuesday morning. The parent low will move to well to the NE , into Hudson's Bay by Thursday morning. The associated cold front will dive S, pushing significantly colder Canadian air into the Northern plains late Thursday that will spread into the upper midwest and NE through the weekend. The Gulf states will be warm through most of the week; near record high temperatures are expected over much of south Texas early this week. No OJ risk this week. I really blew the NG withdrawal forecast last week, it was close to a draw rather than a 40 bcf draw-down. This week I'm thinking that the draw-down will be only a few bcf again due to unseasonably warm conditions over TX and the southern plains for much of last week.