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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Weather December 17-Christmas eve

For the week before Christmas expect average temperatures over the NW and Northern Plains, a zone of above average temperatures running from the SW through the Southern plains, the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and NE, and cool to near average over the SE. Model continuity beyond 1 week is very poor however, and this is a low confidence forecast.

This week a strong arctic low pressure over the northern plains is driving cold air as far south as the southern plains. This cold - modifying to cool- air will reach the Texas Gulf coast Monday morning. Extreme South Texas should avoid frost however as the cool air settles in for the early part of the week. As the cold front approaches the NE Monday expect southwesterly winds to pick up resulting in a brief but noticeable warmup along the NE seaboard.By Tuesday the front has crossed most of the east coast as far south as S Carolina, where it will stall, leaving near-average temperatures in its wake along the eastern Seaboard N of there. A cold gulf of Alaska trough will dive south along the California coast mid week, resulting in mountain snows over much of the W, and much cooler conditions with showers in Southern California for the last half of the week, but a rebounding upper ridge over the east. Thus temperatures will warm over the S and southern plains through the latter half of the week, and gradually modify over the rest of the East as the second half of the week progresses.

My last estimate of NG injections was way underestimated; my mental model probably needs some adjustments as there has been secular trends in baseline NG use in electricity generation I'm probably not accounting for enough. Draw-downs to be reported this Thursday should be below normal; near 70 bcf.