After making my long winded comments I realized they have no place on a forum looking for answers based on the last tick. As you pointed out long term positioning is not your cup of tea. Me? I found chasing short term moves required more time than I want to give to making a trade(s), I have done that/ been there, but now I am at a time in my life any trading is long term positioning. Crude, for me was a long term trade that lasted from 98' to 2008 topping at 145/47 which I posted prior to the drop to about $33.00. Silver I held from 4.35 to 43.50, and I have not been back.Cattle even though I understood the impact on supply from 98' until prices crossed 87.50 I quit trading them and not because the fundamental were bearish, but because the risk of the price swings increased to wider than my "comfort level". It is one thing to be a long term trader, and having the ability to ride the price swings. Crude was, and is easy because there are stocks that will mirror the price swings. Hence the ability to hold long term (when fundamentals are bullish). When bearih from $145 I do not short the stocks or futures.. I just buy PUTs against some selected stocks., Then when deeply oversold buy a few stocks. Silver I closed out cash positions and never looked back.
Trades I have mentioned several times because of the policies of the current Admin the fundamentals become more difficult to read than in a "free" market. I have not lived in a Country controlled by media, and Gov so it is still new to me.
I thought about your comment "leadership"... for people like me controls and leadership are two different animals. We have three different legisative bodies, and the reason is prevent one party from running the Country differently than the methods that made the USA the strongest in the world. Example when all three bodies were controlled by ONE party we saw National Health Care. I very bad thing, but nothing could be done to stop it. The list ot how bad things got is a very long list. Another party was voted in to "one" body, and it has been their effort to prevent a continuation of the distruction of our Country. Due to a controlled media it is difficult because, as you know, there is a large body of un-informed people that believe the talking points of the media rather than facts.
Mostly because they do not understand the impact of a Gov controlled Country. Around the world there are many examples, but the un-informed do not understand. There is enough of them to vote in another four years of expanding Gov control. Most of these people, I have asked many, do not even know who Valerie Jarrett, and her background, or the content of her meeting with Iran. They do not know what is like to be under attack for 7 hours asking for support and none comes They do not know our drone was fired on by Iran. They do not have a clue about Fast and Furious. They do not understand the difference in leadership and 8 years on non-stop campaigns. They do not know that the media is not covering news, but molding the thinking of the un-informed.
With help of media they think they know all the solutions to the economy is to increase taxes on the rich. They do not know that you could take 100% of the weathlies monies and it would not impact the Defict.
What can be done? Nothing, but it is something that we need to understand if we are going to consider operating a business or trade commodities. That is those of us that study fundamentals. Fundamentals not to be confused with media stories or USDA reports.
Happy New Year