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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: U.S.$ Index/backtest results/JohnyAlpha

Well if you can grab 4 pts per month "consistently" you have a winning system. It is the consistent point that's important. And think of the markets as seasons: Summer:(bull market), Fall: (Topping pattern) Winter: (Bear Market) and Spring: (Base building period). A lot of systems are only good in one of these types of seasons or market conditions. Especially oscillators. As far as trading in the afternoon I've often read that amateurs trade 1st thing in the morning and professionals trade in the afternoon into the close. The pros load up late and exit the next day early to the over exuberant amateurs, so they say. Don't know how accurate that is but I've come across that theory a few times over the years. And between 1 and 3:30 fits that theory well. Not sure what other markets might work as I don't recall your original post or my response exactly. But any market that 'trends' and is not a basket case with high volatility would work. I would not use DX though. Perhaps an ETF of one of the sectors that trends would work well as it wouldn't be affected dramatically by any single stock within that sector. And seasonality works with them as a rule too so you can rotate from a seasonally bullish time frame that ends and into another ETF that is just beginning its seasonally strong period. The key is to use markets that trend and and even low beta markets for consistent positive monthly results.