From west to east: near normal in the Pacific NW, mild in the rest of the west, including Texas and the Plains states and near normal elsewhere except for New England where it will be cooler than normal. Ensembles suggest that temperatures will remain below normal in the big Boston-NYC-Philadelphia market until at least the 9th.

This week features a deepening upper trough in the west and a building ridge in the east. The couplet will traverse the country during the week, bringing a variety of active weather to much of the lower 48 during the week. This morning a leading storm system will exit eastern Colorado and begin a track to the NE. Warm air and moisture ahead of the storm will flood north, but initially cold air at the surface will bring freezing and frozen precipitation (freezing rain, ice pellets and snow) to the upper Midwest today (including Chicago), into Michigan and part of Ohio overnight, reaching Pennsylvania and New York Monday morning. As the storm lifts NE toward the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, it will weaken, leaving the warm front just N of NYC and leaving much of New England and upstate NY in a wintery mix of precipitation types. A trailing and much stronger storm will exit the Southern Plains Tuesday morning, reaching northern Quebec as a very deep system very early Thursday morning. Its cold front will sweep rapidly past the east coast from Maine to central Florida by that time. Ahead of the cold front a variety of severe weather, including strong thunderstorms, squall lines bearing damaging winds, very mild temperatures and localized flooding is expected, starting in Oklahoma and Arkansas Tuesday pm, spreading from Louisiana north to lower Michigan by Wednesday morning and along the entire east coast from Northern Florida to New England by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday morning very cold air flooding in behind the storm will spread from the Northern plains east into the Great lakes and as far south as southern Ohio. A weak system may develop on the cold front over Arkansas Thursday evening, heading NE and deepening with the possibility of significant Snowstorm for the NYC coastal area on Friday....there's no model consensus on that scenario yet, however. The NE and Great Lakes states should be much cooler than normal on the weekend, with a warming trend underway in the west. If you live in the east and plan to travel this week check your local and destination forecast before heading out the door.

The NG extraction number to be reported this Thursday should be well over 200 bcf; probably 220 or even a little higher.