The sugar market has been in a downtrend since Feb. 2011(36.08) and is still by definition in a downtrend. The definition being lower swing highs and lower swing lows.

Since Oct 4, 2012 the swing highs have been 21.77, 20.50, 20.03, 19.94, 19.75, 19.19 and this Monday’s 18.96.

The swing lows since Nov. 9th have been 18.66, 18.31 and last Wednesday 18.06. In keeping with the definition the next swing low should be somewhere within the upper quarter of 17cents.

Also the last 11 weeks the price range for each week has been less than a cent. Only three of the 11 weeks the price range difference was in the 90's(points). The most was 98pts and the least price range weekly difference was 43pts and the average was 74pts for the 11 weeks.

The last 18 trading days have been trading roughly within the one cent and as you pointed out that has been within 18cent.

There are a number of “good trading strategies one of which is selling at the top of a suspected trading range and buying at the bottom. One of the best strategies is to trade with the trend.

The current fundamentals of sugar does not indicate a significant change in direction anytime soon.

Prosperous trades!
KJB22