Ensembles indicate a shift in the circulation to a trough and cool conditions in the west, but without a corresponding big ridge in the east. As a result, most of the lower 48 will experience near to below normal temperatures during the middle of February with quite seasonally cool conditions over southern New Mexico, Arizona and the cities in the inter-mountain areas between the Coast Range and the Rockies (including Salt Lake City, where they are likely to suffer another prolonged period of very poor air quality due to a persistent temperature inversion). The exception will be the Northeast where milder than average conditions are expected.

This week features, initially, a trough in the east and a ridge in the west, and for a few more days re-enforcing shots of cold air will drop into the Midwest and move east, keeping the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and NE seasonably cool. By midweek the flow will begin to flatten, but not onto a really warm flow with a big component from the south but rather a west-east jet stream that keeps the northern half of the US in a shallow trough. By the weekend, however, a quite cold Pacific trough will drop into southern California and this will act to divert warmer flow into the eastern half of the country for a few days so temperatures should gradually moderate in the east for the latter half of the week. The weekend looks to be snow and cold for the Rockies and inter-mountain west and seasonally mild for the NE. Thursday-Saturday will bring wintery precipitation north of the Mason Dixon line to much of the Ohio Vally, Great Lakes and NE. The Southeast including most of TX will be seasonably mild this week, except for S Texas where temperatures will range around 10F above normal.

This week's NG numbers will take into account last weeks stormy and mild weather in the east, and so extractions should be below normal; around 140 bcf or about 25 bcf below the 5 year average. The following week's numbers will take this week's cool east into account, and should run somewhat above normal at around 170 bcf.