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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

weather Feb 25th - March 4th

Generally cooler than seasonal in the West; near to slightly above normal in the east.

This is another active week, with a nor-easter departing New England this morning, and a large trough stretching from Northern Manitoba south to New Mexico. Strong high pressure between the 2 systems has the lower 48, east of a line from Chicago to New Orleans, quite a bit colder than average this morning. By Monday eve the trough will consolidate into a single system centered near Milwaukee and track east north-east, reaching Prince Edward Island in the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday eve. Mild air ahead of this system will briefly raise temperatures from the Midwest (Monday) to the east coast (on Tuesday) early this week. A surge of Arctic air will rush in behind this system to return temperatures in the NE to below average early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile a pacific trough will cross the southern Rockies early this week, bringing much cooler conditions to California and Nevada, and consolidate into a developing storm over Colorado Wednesday morning. This system will track toward the lower Great Lakes during the latter half of the week, and gradually fizzle, as jet stream support is too weak for continued strengthening. Nevertheless, it promises to be a significant weather-maker with heavy snow for the upper Midwest and freezing rain over Oklahoma, Missouri and southern Illinois on Thursday. Chicago may receive 6-8 inches of snow - its highest storm total for the winter to date.

NG extractions to be reported Thursday will be below average..in the 120 bcf range due to milder weather last week, but extractions to be reported on March 7th should be well above average due to generally cool conditions expected this week.