Back on 1/30 there was a post suggesting the possibility of shorting lumber. Since then it retreated some, only to bound back to almost 400. I see that during the last decade lumber only reached > 400 once, in 2004. My question is: "Is the construction market really able to support such a high price?" I have 2 good friends who are builders, and they are not very impressed with the idea of any meaningful rebound in that field any time soon (still). Seems to me the current price may not be sustainable, and it is worth considering shorting July Lumber. Take a look at the historical seasonal chart: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_lumber.html
Any thoughts?