I hope you are always confident in your trading plan so regardless of what anyone says to you, you stick with your plan until the price action of the market tells you to do otherwise.

I say this because I know in advance all I'm going to do is state the obvious. Cocoa is and has been in a downtrend since March of 2011. I don't know what time frame you trade in or style but when I traded I was a swing trader usually in a position for a one to five days and usually out for the weekend. I usually always traded with the trend.

Today's price action did not confirm if 2156 was or will be a swing high. Instead it may have formed a Tweezer swing high which will be confirmed if price obviously stays below 2156, and continues in the markets downtrend. Swing low was formed last week at 2102 and previous swing high is 2190 making the 61.8% retracement at 2156.

IF however the price should rise above 2156(and it sounds like you think it might) one has to wonder where the next swing high(or resistance) might form. Looking back to the next most recent swing high one finds it on Feb 7th at 2260. And looking for noticeable resistance between here and there, I see what I sometimes call "candlestick resistance" at 2200. To explain "candlestick resistance" I call your attention to the real body of Feb 11th candlestick. In other words the 11th opening at 2227 and close at 2172. Some believe resistance may or can be found halfway up the real body which would be 2200(sometimes just a weak intra day resistance). Oh and by the way 61.8% re-tracement form 2102 to 2260 is 2200.

As I started out saying one should have their own trading plan taylormade for them and should stay with it until price action proves you wrong.

Sugar and cocoa were and are my favorite two markets. Could not help but notice a gap up opening in May sugar this morning and rose right up against the upper trend line and probably formed a swing high. IF I had still been trading I would have tried to enter into a short positon somewhere in the 18.teens area and proabably wait for 80 points or so. Last swing low was Feb 15th at 17.67.

Regadless of what position you take I do wish you prosperous trades.

KJB22