That seasonal trend is worth paying attention to and the 5,10 and 25 year trends show a low soon but is not cast in stone in any single year. With the cost of feed going through the roof last fall etc the seasonals could be screwed up too as the normal seasonal trend may have been affected by the response to high feed costs. I have no idea as I don't follow fundamentals. But looking at the price action it does look like it is following the typical seasonal trend into a Feb/March low. The 'price action' is still bearish though. I see price spun its wheels just below the 147.50 price support for several days without plunging lower and closed today back above this resistance level at 148.05. So perhaps price is about to run to the 150 resistance area or even the downtrendline again. Time to watch for this to occur to suggest an important low 'may' be in. Staying above 147.50 is the acid test for the next move higher. If it can't hold above 147.50 another selloff could occur to new lows. Should see soon enough.

But many traders do use the c.o.t. as it shows the positions of the important holders of contracts which are the commercials. The commercials tend to be right overall and the small traders are invariably wrong at extremes. I noticed the FC net positions of commercials were about twice as long as short. The positions can reach extremes without a price reversal right away much like an oversold market can continue to become more oversold. Recall the old saying "A market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent". I'm no expert in using c.o.t. as unfortunately I never did really get into it. More focused on chart patterns etc. But it would be a good idea to get a good handle on using c.o.t. as it is important information that comes out weekly and is free from this site. Nice to know who is holding what I would think if you are seriously into a commodity. One does have to understand how to use c.o.t. and it isn't as obvious as it appears apparently.
Stephen Briese is a well respected analyst of c.o.t. and wrote a book in 2008 that sells on Amazon.com for $44.94 called The Commitment of Traders Bible. If I recall correctly he is one of the best.