BS"D

Good morning,

We accumulated quite a few points on various trades on Thursday.
Good thing too, 'cause the money will sure come in handy (this
year it costs almost $19 a pound for first-oven, hand-baked,
shmura matzah).

That was my way of reminding students that I will be off the
air for the next 8 days or so. See you April 4th, after a
kosher and a joyous Pesach.

TGIF!!!

Enjoy and be well,

******************************
Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
******************************

E-mini ES H3
Thursday 21 March 2013

1 = Thursday morning opens gap-down with an Anomaly 2-bar (Overnight, bottom left chart)
off the S2. Volume (pink arrow) is strong, and we enter aggressively.

NOTE: This was a discretionary call. Though normally we prefer
not to enter aggressively off an Anomaly, this time Volume was
strong, and the reversing candle really took off. Too inviting
to pass up.

A = Breakaway gap (turns out it was actually an early-exhaustion gap), and a white Bull
Dragonfly. Per PMT stop rules, move the profit-locking stop under the low of the candle
(or even to Free Trade).

Two more, wispy, white, Bull Dragonflies, the second of which spikes the S1 and retracts.
We reflexively Pivot Scalp exit. +/- 1.75 points

2 = A powerful 2-bar "P" Signal through the S1.

B = We are pulled in on a large red inverted (Bull) Dragonfly. The long bottom wick and
the Twin Towers (pink arrow) combine to indicate a stall/sag on the next candle.

C = Large red candle (an almost perfect Marubozu) plunges through the S2. Per our stop
rules, move the profit-locking stop above the S2.

The next candle is a Black Volume Bar of Death Doji No room for callout annotation.
Change the stop to mental, and prepare to exit if the next candle shows white.

It does. +/- 2.0 points

3 = Nasty Double Bottom through the S2. Sadly, it never takes off.

4 = Is this a Bull 123?

D = Yes it is! Volume is up somewhat, so we take this trade in the direction of the
Close.

E = Small gap, and a healthy white candle heads north in an attempt to close the gap.

5 = Red candle completes a 2-bar Reversal off the Close/(oddly hard)LT Trend Channel
Floor (green line). Exit (and Reverse?). +/- 1.50 points

As lunchtime begins, Volume doesn't warrant a Bear entry away from the Close. Pass
on that Reversal.

6 = A 123 off the underside of the S1.

F = Volume (pink arrow) perks up, and we enter on a giant red candle to the S2. At
the close of the candle, move the stop to Free Trade and a tik or two.

G = Red candle through the S2. Per our stop rules, move the profit-locking stop above
the S2. This, BTW, is a 2-candle 123, so we add contracts.

H = Following a single candle stall 123 test of the S2 Support-turned-Resistance,
another giant red candle pulls free. Our position is in PMT Maximum Profit Giveback
(MPG) violation. DVS (pink arrow) suggests exhausted Momentum, so a mental stop at
Giveback Level has added value (no need for Cancel-Replace order to exit).

NOTE: The MA has proven reliable, so we have to choose to exit
(+/- 2.75 points) or decide that this is an S-Trap, and a good
opportunity for us to utilize our NEW PULL-BACK LOCK-IN S-TRAP
EVASION MANEUVER and risk giving back a point.

1. We hold back from exiting when the tails of the fraternal
pair of Bear Dragonflies hit MPG (PULL-BACK).

2. When the small red Spinning Top fails at the MA, move the
stop above the MA (LOCK-IN).

3. LOCK-IN again when the small Doji fails the MA test.

Well done! We have successfully executed the
NEW PULL-BACK LOCK-IN S-TRAP EVASION MANEUVER.

K = Extraordinary DVS (pink arrow) blasts a giant red candle to spike the S3 and
retract. That's a Pivot Scalp Exit Now! Signal. +/- 9.25 points

RISKED 1 point
REWARDED 6.25 points

So, was it worth it?

7 = Volume (pink arrow) tapes a massive DVS, and the plunger is pulled way back from the
MA, together, permitting us to enter aggressively on this Doji Sandwich. The elongated
top wick and the DVS both warn of failing Momentum. Jump the stop to Free Trade and a
couple of tiks.

L = Large white candle taps on the S2 and retracts, for an Exit Now! Signal.
+/- 2.25 points

8 = Volume is low, and the PMT entry clock runs out before this 2-bar can take off.
Pass, and glad of it.

EOD Hiccup is on time, with a 123 peak of the classic "V" check mark, and a vigorous run
down to EOD close atop the S3.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom right chart)

The big plunge (see repeating historical pattern = X) seems
underway, with Thursday's healthy red day candle closing
below the preceding "breather" level.

BEWARE OF TRAPS ON FRIDAY!

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!
BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Thursday's PMT Chart: