The first week of April will feature well above average temperatures over the Rocky Mountain states and the west coast (except for the immediate coastline where onshore winds will keep conditions near normal). Temperatures will remain below to well below normal over the lower Great Lakes states, Ohio Valley and the Virginias, but this area of anomalous cold is shrinking as we get into April. The flow de-amplifies , i.e. that deep troughing over the east flattens out, shutting off the cold air pipeline from Canada and allowing most of the east to return to more seasonable temperatures.

This week, however, the prolonged winter continues to make its presence noticed as a complex but powerful winter storm evolves as it slowly treks from the Plains to the Ohio Valley tonight while a second system just off the Georgia coast intensifies rapidly and moves NE to lie just south of Long Island Monday mid-day. Very cold air is driving into TX and OK in the wake of the first system. After wreaking significant snow havoc in a band from from Eastern Kansas to inland southern New York State (with a wintery mix and strong winds along the coast from from DC to Boston) the complex system will move out to sea Tuesday, leaving most of the NE in a cool northerly flow for the rest of the week. A generally "ridgy" patten, interrupted by a few minor disturbances, will keep temperatures over the west at or near normal through the early part of the week. A deep cut off low is expected to develop well off the SoCal coast neat the weekend, building a ridge over much of the SW and increasing temperatures over the SW and deep south as far east as Louisiana by the weekend.

NG extractions should be well above normal when they are reported on Thursday March 28th (we're normally into injection season by now) continuing the bullish trend. Even the report for April 4th is expected to show extractions and at a level well above normal. However, the longer range forecasts are for a gradual return to temperature normality, and so probably by late next week (the end of the first week of April) we'll see the end of the bull run for the time being.

The PIC shows the very cold air expected over S TX early this week, with a significant rebound by the weekend. Sounding temperatures at Norman, OK this morning are more than 2 standard deviations below normal for this time of year. That means that 98 % of the time its warmer.