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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

weather May 5-12

It is expected to be generally milder than average to the west on a line drawn from the Montana -North Dakota border south to west Texas. The south-eastern quadrant of the country will be cooler than average, and the Northeast near to above average, except for immediately along the Great Lakes shoreline, where the cool Lakes will keep coastal city temperatures suppressed. Cooler than average temperatures over the SE are more likely to reduce NG demand due to reduced cooling demand rather than to enhance demand due to space heating requirements.

This week, at least early-on, features a continuation of a moderating trend to temperatures over most of the lower 48, with a bit of a heat wave in store for much of California. Temperatures over California just inland from the Pacific will average 15-25 F higher than average during the early part of the week, cool a bit to 10-15 F higher than normal during the latter half. Cool air from a North Pacific storm will push into the Pacific NW late Monday-Tuesday and this slug of cool air will slowly sink to the southeast. It will reach the southeast Atlantic coastline by Friday although the NE will remain milder than average through the period. Its important to note that Friday morning lows over the SE, though below average, will range from near 32F in the Appalachians to the mid to upper 40's along the lower elevation areas and and coastal plains, and that temperatures will recover to near 60 on the mountains and mid 60's to low 70's over the lower elevations and the coastal plains during the day. Hence NG demand for space heating will be slight in spite of seasonally cool conditions in the area. This is a "sweet spot" for bears as demand is dropping rapidly for heating and yet cooling demand has not yet emerged.