For the end of this month and the beginning of the next we expect above normal temperatures through a large section of the heartland ranging from TX through the southern plains, southern Midwest and much of the Ohio Valley. Elsewhere near normal temperatures are expected. Not much in the way of heavy precipitation is expected in the warmer areas; most of the rain and thunderstorms will be confined to the northern tier: ND, WI, MI, IA, IL, IN and OH in particular - grain and corn areas.

This week brings significant precipitation much of the same are along the northern tier, along with strong thunderstorms to much of the South centered in one cluster near Wichita and another cluster further west around Atlanta. Initially there is a large trough in the general circulation over Wyoming that moves slowly SE to the center of the country early in the week. It t deepens and then creeps ENE to over the Dakotas by Wednesday and over the Upper Great lakes by the weekend where it becomes reinforced by a shot of energy from Northern Canada. Meanwhile, over the far west, a ridge builds along the Pacific coast early in the week only to be replaced by an anomalously cold and deep trough by Wednesday and it stalls in place. Thus by Friday we have the classic omega block pattern over the lower 48: trough in the west, big ridge through the center and trough in the NE.

A large area of unseasonably warm air ahead of the Wyoming trough will gradually shift to the east through the week before being finally pushed off the east coast by Saturday. Thus conditions are primed for outbreaks of severe weather through much of the eastern half of the country during the next few days; initially over Oklahoma, Nebraska and the central and northern plains today through Monday shifting a bit east Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday the fact that the trough weakens a bit reduces the chance of severe weather in the East. Much of TX will remain outside of the direct effects of the trough and will remain anomalously warm all week.

With active weather (implying considerable cloud and precipitation, and above average warmth over TX this week, demand for heating will be nearly non-existent but demand for cooling should jump. So NG injections should be reported at a little above normal for the next 2 reporting periods (May 24th and 31st) which would ordinarily be bearish, but as the Federal government has now approved for a second LNG export terminal in TX there seems to be a positive sentiment in play for NG prices in spite of the fact that any new export terminal won't be ready for a year or more. So from fundamentals prices should drop considerably during the next 2 weeks; from sentiment maybe the pressure is the other direction. Personally, to me the logic suggests a short term short - long term long strategy but who knows. Either way I think that the US shouldn't export NG, instead we should be building an infrastructure of NG filling stations and building NG powered cars.