Welcome to the TFC Commodity Trading Forum.
Please feel welcome to join in on these informative ongoing discussions about trading futures and commodities.

The Trading Forum is intended for the open discussion of commodities trading. The management of this Forum does not agree or disagree with the ideas exchanged, and does not exert editorial control over the message posted herein. Read and post at your own risk. The risk of loss in trading or commodities can be substantial. We discourage the use of this Forum to promote trading that is acknowledged to be risky. Please note: many links from the Forum lead to pages on other web sites. We cannot take responsibility for nor endorse the information presented on those sites.

TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Daytrading Money Management vs Traps *LINK* *PIC*

BS"D

Exploit Pit Pivot Points
Daytrading Course
Learn to Read the Tape
******************************

DAILY PIVOT MAGIC TRADING JOURNAL - EXCERPT

Good morning,

Friday was one long trap. We did mention, "BEWARE OF TRAPS ON FRIDAY!"
It was a long day relying on our PMT risk-conservative Money Management
rules. There was one only decent move all day (= 2), and it didn't meet
our Pivot Magic Trading entry standards. Pain!

Hope you shut down early. I made personally made a large batch of Nick
Yanko's famous rice pilaf (replacing butter with a non-dairy substitute,
of course) for a Shabbat treat.

Enjoy and be well,

******************************
Pivot Magic Trading
First rule:
"Any time you don't know what is happening, get out!"
******************************

E-mini ES U3
Friday 14 June 2013

Friday morning opens gap-down with a bounce off the LT Trend Channel Floor (green line). The gap is
closed and Price Action struggles at the Close.

1 = Ten o'clock Action Time, and strong Volume (pink arrow) drives a powerful 123 through the Close.
As Price Action exits the green fog, we enter aggressively.

A = Large white candle through the High. Long top and bottom wicks give it a Spinning Top stall candle
appearance. The possible Twin Towers (pink arrow) would indicate that the next candle will truly
stall/sag/retrace. Seems we have fallen into a Friday Trap. Per PMT stop rules, move the profit-locking
stop under the High, and prepare psychologically.

Next (red) candle and our stop is hit. Externally effected SCRATCH! +/- 1 point

2 = Ten thirty Action Time. Volume is strong and we seriously consider entry on
this healthy 123 off the Close:

* Together with the Late-in-the-Move DVS (pink arrow) that signaled
the end of the preceding leg of the run down, strong Volume now makes
it a Twin Towers (purple arrow) stall indicator.

* The green line is assumed to be hard even before the Opening Range
proof. The Price Window is too small, even for a PMT Scalp Trade.

Too many dead ends. Pass. Needless to say, as it turns out, this is the smoothest trading leg of the
trap-filled run down on Friday.

PRETEND - FOR DISCUSSION ONLY - NOT A PMT TRADE
Assuming an aggressive entry.

B = Following a scary white stall candle, Volume swells (pink arrow), and a giant red candle dives through
the green line. Our position is in maximum profit Giveback (MPG) violation. (Remember, the green line only
has influence into the Channel.) Mental stop at Giveback Level.

C = Wondering if the continued high Volume might be a Twin Towers. The next large red candle closes with
skid marks, as an inverted (Bull) Dragonfly. Not a great sign.

D = Volume holds strong. Another large red candle with an elongated bottom wick. Starting to look like a
group of paratroopers wafting down to settle gently on the Pivot!

Normal stop above the high of the candle leaves the position in MPG violation. Mental stop at Giveback Level.

E = Total DVS (pink arrow) exhaustion, as the final paratrooper stretches to tap, very gently, on the Pivot
and retract. Pivot Scalp Exit Now! Signal. Happily, we are prepared with a mental stop, so we hold on to
most of the profits. +/- 6.75 PRETEND points

Fun, but not at all comparable to real profits!

Price Action now becomes choppy with traps; at 11:40 trading becomes positively dicey. A stair-stepping bear
trend has developed (blue channel lines).

3 = Wicked 123. Following a 2-candle 123 above the Pivot. Volume (pink arrow) is a tad higher than lunchtime
low, and equal to that driving the 10:00 plunge. This feels right for entry; however, the 10:00 plunge in fact
stalled with less than 2 points.

To make it even more difficult, the intraday trend floor (blue line) also suggests bears will encounter
interference about 2 points into the current pending move.

it is still lunchtime, and thus the time AND Volume is neither appropriate nor sufficient to fuel a plunge
precipitous enough to achieve our minimum profit goals before 1:30 Reversal Time.

F = This weak dip is like the BBs are pushing a cork below the surface/Pivot.

1. All the while that the Price Action cork is depressed (black oval)
it stays submerged.

2. Once pressure released, buoyancy promptly takes over: A large white
candle rises gasping to the Pivot/surface.

3. Surface tension 123, and a DVS (pink arrow) pops the cork pops out
of the water.

4. Bouncing on the surface (orange oval) for a full Double Top formation.

5. Momentum from the second fall just breaks the surface (blue arrow)
with a rather paltry Late-in-the-Move DVS (blue arrow).

6. Unrestrained, the cork pops back up for another bounce, EOD Hiccup
(plum lines). The Hiccup is a bit early, but it does tape the unmistakable
"V" check mark pattern as Price Action dives through the Pivot to EOD close.

PERSPECTIVE
(Daily, bottom chart)

Substantial red day candle oozes out through the LT Channel Floor
(green channel lines). Though it is possible that the trend angle
has shifted (green dashed channel lines), more likely, this ominous
candle precedes a possibly more aggressive follow through on Monday,
for a TTT test of the blue line.

REMEMBER: Trade the Tape, Not my Prognostics!

BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING, AND GUARD YOUR FUNDS!

Asher
=] ;-)>

Friday's PMT Chart: