I did take father's day off - it was also my birthday and so the family kept me pretty busy.

Weather-wise the long range ensembles show a shift from the current omega pattern of troughs on each northern corner of the lower 48 and a ridge in the middle to a a much more zonal pattern by early next week and a massively building ridge centered over the southern Rockies and southern Plains by the middle of next week and beyond. This patterns will induce monsoonal flow over west TX and Arizona; possibly the southern CO Rockies as well. The US monsoon brings some rain and temperature relief to these areas and so they will be a little cooler than usual June 27th-July 4th, but it will heat up over the rest of the country - especially over the Great Basin in the west and the mid-Atlantic in the east, and put pressure on NG supplies as cooling demand really ramps up. Given simultaneous declines in TX during this period, NG consumption should remain near to slightly above average levels. NG injections to be reported tomorrow should be slightly above average which should lead to higher prices in the short-term; the long term trend is bullish as well but as production remains high, upside potential is probably limited.

There is a tropical disturbance in the SW gulf of Mexico..it won't threaten the US and will dissipate over MX near Veracruz by the end of the week, according to the Hurricane Center.

I'll do a full update on the weekend.