The first week of calendar summer brings a very strong ridge to the west and a shallow trough to the east. Temperatures will be warmer than average from the Front Range to the Pacific coast in the West and cooler than average over the Upper Great Lakes states and the central and southern Plains. Elsewhere it should be near normal except on the extreme eastern seaboard and gulf coasts where elevated ocean temperatures will keep temperatures a little higher than average. This is a bad pattern for forest fires in the SW with near record high temperatures expected over the So Cal deserts, Nevada and much of AZ, and a menacing pattern for continuing severe weather over much of the east; especially the Upper Midwest near the beginning of the month and the NE later. Much of the eastern seaboard and Gulf coast states are in for a stormy wet period with high humidity and frequent thunderstorms. Its likely we'll see the first Atlantic Hurricane of the year during the first week of July, most likely a Caribbean storm to start. The western ridge is now looking too strong to allow the start of the monsoon season over the desert SW.

This week looks dry in the West including Tx and OK (but not the Pac NW ) and thunderstorm-wet over the Northern Plains,Great Lakes states and really most of the east, down to the tip of Florida. A trough will develop just off the Washington coast early in the week with fairly flat flow over the rest of the lower 48. After mid-week, the ridge over the SW will be really popping with temperatures rising in Vegas to above record numbers (around 115F). As the ridge builds the flow will tighten up and accelerate over the Midwest bringing a risk of severe weather especially to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan. This kind of pattern often produces "derecho" type storms that feature torrential rain and non-tornadic straight-line winds of 60-80 mph or higher associated with long-lived squall lines.

NG consumption should be near average this week and next as extreme heat over the west is balanced by cloudiness over the east. The numbers for June 15-21 to be reported this Thursday should be around 10% above average, increasing downward pressure on price.