Temperatures will be higher than normal for the week after the middle of the month over the Northeast and West from the Great Basin to the coast. Elsewhere temperatures will be more-or-less near normal. There is a slight risk of a tropical storm or hurricane along the Atlantic seaboard or even the Caribbean/eastern Gulf of Mexico early in the period but the disturbance responsible is well out to sea at this time and so even if development does occur it is impossible to guess at a trajectory with confidence yet.

This week finally brings the "lift-out"of a persistent upper trough and its associated stream of tropical moisture along the East coast. By mid week the trough will be moving past Nova Scotia, only to be replaced by a new trough dropping out of Saskatchewan. So although conditions should get slightly less muggy and a little cooler in the NE by mid-week, the new trough will bring a greatly increased risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday to the upper mid-west, extending to the Ohio Valley and NE thru the later half of the week and early weekend. Over the Southeast, muggy showery conditions will continue all week as the southern extension of the original trough stalls in place. An upper low will cross over Florida this week (Tues-Thurs) with a high probability of flash floods and dangerous lightning/hail. Over Texas and most of the west a strong ridge will remain in place. A weak trough will cool down the Pacific NW mid week but the Southwest will remain generally hot and dry. By mid week the SW deserts including Vegas will be getting back into record temperature territory again but by Friday the door may be opened to a flow from the Gulf of Mexico and monsoonal thunderstorms as the center of the ridge drifts a little to the NE. Models seem to agree on a high probability of daily thunderstorms over the Colorado Rockies during the period with an attendant risk of forest fire through the week.

NG injections to be reported Thursday should be significantly above normal as persistent cloud and rain over the east and especially the SE has kept temperatures and consumption suppressed.