For the end of the month and the first few days of August, apart from the southern California deserts and southern Nevada where it will be warmer than average, the lower 48 will be near normal to much cooler than normal. It will be cooler than normal mainly over the SE (not including Fl) and the mid Mississippi valley where a stalled front will focus daily showers and thunderstorms and maintain extensive cloudiness.

This week features a stable ridge in the west and a trough in the East. The ridge in the west will be fairly weak for the first few days of the week, undermined by a tropical wave passing slowly by to the south. As a result, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms (with very gusty winds near the stronger cells) will continue to hit New Mexico, Arizona, southern Nevada and the California deserts for a few days yet. Should dry out closer to the weekend.

Over the east general "troughiness" and slightly cool temperatures in the mid-troposphere will encourage the formation of widespread daily showers and thunderstorms, keeping temperatures well below heat wave criteria...which is nice. It will be a little drier over the NE and near the Great lakes where humidity has dropped in the wake of last week's heatwave, at least for a couple of days. Over the remainder of the east, the risk of precipitation will drop a little for the weekend as weak surface high pressure builds in. Given the cooler conditions expected over the east for the next couple of weeks, NG prices should drift lower thru the period.

The tropics are quiet and storm development is not expected this week.