For the middle of August ensemble models predict cool conditions in the east except for the Gulf Coast (where it will be near average) and near average over the West except for the Pacific NW where it should be a little warmer than average. Florida should be the sole above-average state in the East for the period. Basically we maintain the ridge in the west, trough in the east pattern. Most of the east will be quite wet through the period although most of TX east to FL along the coast should be fairly dry as what's left of a subtropical ridge stays in place over the Gulf of Mexico. If any tropical storms form during this period they should be kept south in the Caribbean with Mexico landfalls.

This week the upper trough over the east weakens a bit allowing the flow to shift to a more west-to-east direction across the lower 48. This alters the storm track with thunderstorms and large thunderstorm complexes likely to form along a line drawn from Denver east to Norfolk VA through the week. Kansas and Missouri will remain closest to the bulls-eye where not only is their drought being wiped out but they're quickly going to a soil saturation condition resulting in a significant flood risk that will worsen this week.

In spite of the flattening of the eastern trough, significant cloud cover and unsettled conditions should keep most of the East except the far S cooler than average. This will maintain negative pressure on NG prices. Thursday-Friday a cold front will pass through the Great Lakes and NE bringing very heavy rain and thunderstorms; some severe. Through the weekend the NE should clear out as surface high pressure builds into the area allowing conditions to dry there and become very pleasant at least for a few days.