A bit of a warm up on the way for the first full week of September; warmer than average from the Rockies to the Pacific coast, warmer over the east and nearly all of Texas, and average temperatures over the Plains. Both the Great Basin and Florida will be especially warmer than normal. There is a risk of significant rain over the Central Plains, upper Great Lakes, Texas coastline and the NE, but the risk is low and this period looks quite dry over most of the lower 48. The caveat for the east is the slowly increasing chance of an east coast Hurricane but so far models are keeping the probabilities low; around 10% for the period.

This week features a forming tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche (that is likely only to affect the Bay and the adjacent Mexican coastline) and a very strong ridge over the central US. Models forecast a slow drift of the center of the ridge to the WSW and gradual weakening from today through the end of the week. Abnormally warm conditions will prevail over the center of the country from N Texas into the Plains all the way to the Canadian border with daytime high temperatures in the east near to a little above average and along the west coast near to a little below. Night-time low temperatures should be above average over nearly all of the lower 48, with more than 20 degree-above-average nighttime low temperatures expected during the week over the Northern plains and upper Midwest. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms this week at the top of the ridge; generally over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

A decaying eastern Pacific tropical storm, Ivo, will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the desert SW today and tomorrow with localized flooding likely.

With mild to warm conditions generally in the cards for the next couple of weeks, I expect there will be short-term upward pressure on NG prices.