Generally above average temperatures are expected over the West and Texas, and Florida. The rest of the lower 48 can expect near average temperatures for the period. Just to be clear these are temperatures averaged over the 7 days of the forecast; daily fluctuations will occur. Although it should be showery east of the Rockies, especially in the vicinity of the Great Lakes, no major deluges are likely with one important caveat - the development of a tropical system in the Caribbean. So far ensemble models agree that this has a low probability, especially the probability of a US landfall. Tropical storm development forecasts though don't have a lot of skill and as its the peak of the hurricane season it always prudent to keep an eye on the tropics.

This week features a huge, hot ridge parked over the southern Rockies that will expand and strengthen during the week. A cut-off low on the Pacific NW coastline will be matched by a developing trough over the NE. As a fairly strong low swings through the eastern trough early this week and interacts with a sub-tropical frontal boundary stretching NE-SW this morning from Boston to Little Rock, the NE is in for a lot of rain and strong wind early in the week, followed by unsettled, cool weather. Meanwhile the northern and central plains should expect well above average temperatures through the period, especially in the overnight period when conditions won't cool off as much as usual (near mid-60s for ND, for example where usually it is low 50's). Usually the Great Basin and desert SW would be very warm in this pattern but there is a lot of monsoonal moisture hanging around and this will persist through the week, especially as a decaying East-Pacific Tropical storm (Kiko) injects more moisture into the flow around the western side of the ridge.

There is an impressive tropical wave just east of the leeward Islands this morning. So far only the Canadian model develops it as a hurricane later this week, but the Canadian is notorious over-developer. Nevertheless, the atmosphere is conducive to its development and I place its chances at 50% over the next 2 days. National Hurricane Centre is going with 20% at this point.

NG prices have been on a gradual upturn since he beginning of the month and this week should be no exception. All bets are off if a Hurricane does develop but even if it does the most likely path is off the east coast of the US and not into the Gulf of Mexico.