Ensemble indicate near-average temperatures over most of the East and Pacific NW; otherwise warmer than average with much warmer than average conditions over the upper Midwest and Southern Rockies. Looks to be fairly wet along the Gulf coast and the SE Atlantic seaboard and relatively dry elsewhere. The wetness indicators suggest an uptick in tropical weather through the period but details are not evident yet except that the SW Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche area) looks to be fairly active. There is a strong storm emerging this morning off the African coast but its far too early to determine its fate and behavior.

This week features a ridge over the central plains that migrates to the SE early in the week. Some strong storms are possible near the top and NE part of the ridge (northern plains and upper Midwest) today and tomorrow. Meanwhile a strong trough drops down from Canada into the upper Midwest midweek, pushing over most of the east and causing a ridge to pop-up over the West by Friday.

Warm moist conditions will continue over the SE and re-develop over the North-Eastern seaboard tomorrow through midweek although a cold front will bring a return to heavy rain and thunderstorms to the NE Wednesday afternoon -Thursday that will spread over much of the SE Thursday afternoon and Friday.

Other than some monsoonal showers and thunderstorms this week over Arizona, New Mexico and Southern Nevada, the west will remain generally dry all week although some moisture will shift into Colorado and Wyoming by Friday and into the weekend.

Although it will be anomalously warm over the Midwest to start the week - day and night with lows in some places more than 20F above average - that warmth will shift east and weaken so that by Friday and especially the weekend much of the east will experience cooler than average temperatures; both day and night. Given that last week's injection was a bit above average, and likely another week of near average consumption is coming up, I expect NG to continue its short term slide although not dramatically.