For the end of September models indicate near to a little below average temperatures in the West and Rocky Mountain states and above average conditions elsewhere except over the southern Appalachians where stable conditions will reduce night time lows and increase the probability of fog which will, in turn, keep temperatures near average. This is the shoulder season and above average temperatures will not really enhance NG demand for cooling.
This week eyes are on Hurricane Ingrid. It's strong winds are expected to remain well south of US oil and gas producing interests in the Gulf of Mexico but it will bring torrential rains to the eastern Mexican coastline around and especially inland of Veracruz before it dissipates inland late Monday or early Tuesday. Pemex production is seriously affected however, which will probably put a little pressure on crude prices. A little rain from Ingrid will wetten SW Texas today/tomorrow.
Other damp areas this week include the Pacific NW which seems to be beginning its climatological fall after a nice, dry summer, and an area from the Central plains N up to the Upper Midwest where the zone of tropical moisture responsible for the severe flooding along the Colorado Front range will drift to early in the week. It will create a few thunderstorms at first and then become part of a strong early season storm that will develop over the northern plains Wednesday. On Thursday/early Friday this system will bring heavy rain and strong winds to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
More ominously, substantial moisture from the remains of Ingrid will push toward New Mexico/W Texas Tuesday dropping heavy rain on its path and move NNE in a channel toward Colorado to bring another round of possible damaging precipitation Wednesday/Thursday. Incidentally, Front-range Colorado is in for another round of heavy precipitation as early as overnight tonight as a transient high pressure to its east pushes easterly winds up against the range and forces the development of overnight heavy precipitation. When it rains it pours.
Temperatures this week look fairly subdued; near average except a bit warmer than that over the Northern plains early in the week but dramatically cooler over the NW by Tuesday. From the beginning of the week to the end, the lower 48's average temperature will run from a little above average overall to quite a bit below. I think there will be strong negative pressure on NG this week, unless something quite unexpected occurs,like Ingrid heading due N instead of west.
