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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Cotton--Plan the Trade...

And trade the plan. Easier said than done. I stumbled a bit executing the plan as outlined. Not getting aboard long @ 82.11 disrupted the works, costing me, I've figured out to be appx 15 g's. The market did as expected, going up to the 50% Fibo retracement and, if you've been watching, has slid rather nicely. Since I didn't put all the northbound positions on, I didn't have the capital to get aggressive when the market broke hard. As it stands, my 5-85 puts are still in the corral and show nearly a triple. With two weeks to expiry, it was worthwhile to short 2-80 puts, collecting about a grand apiece. Like the bean market, the 1300 strike will probably hold the beans til expiration and I figure 80 may do the same for the cotton. I had orders to sell one each call @ 6.22 and 6.80, but neither got hit today. I've also bracketed the futures with limit buys and buy stops if the market takes a hard swing either way. This is akin to a pilot approaching the landing, making minor adjustments to the flight path.

Unfortunately these options end soon--two weeks and I have to decide whether to take all options off or exercise 'em. Looking at past history, the potential is there for a continued drop to the mid to low 70's. Shows up well in the weekly chart.

This is kinda fun, trying to live with that other axiom of 'letting the profits run'. Ain't easy. My guess is that whatever happens tonight and tomorrow, I'm lightening up and ringing the cash register. The gain is just too outsized in relation to my new account to not reel in some.

Now we've gotta get corn on the stick. I believe it'll crack when the Nov bean options end. (and I've positioned myself with Jan and Mar bean puts. They are exceedingly cheap right now. Take a good look there. LOTSA time, dollar movement and So Amer crop as key factors leading to a possible slide...)

Trade well and stay thirsty, my friends.

Stomper

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Cotton--Plan the Trade...
Re: Cotton--Plan the Trade...