A couple of diff opinions here.

Re cost of energy, currently we are getting hip deep in our domestic oil supply. It's apparently one of the reasons for oil's price slide. Bakken crude, which is a very high quality, akin to WTI, is going out at around $75 a bbl., two key reasons are the cost of transporting the stuff outta here and the high specific gravity (very sweet oil, light and clear) is not the oil most of our refineries are set up to deal with. We oil haulers are experiencing quite a slowdown, even though production is now over 900,000 bbls a day. Companies are laying off drivers and others are cutting back on the number of loads dispatched daily. Pipelines are being installed as fast as possible, connecting the wells to the national pipeline network and also to the rail terminals. Then there's the two new Texas fields-- the Eagle Ford and the Wolf Something or other. Without much, if any, public dissemination, we are rapidly approaching energy independence. Don't mistake me, we are far away, but the level of infrastructure to handle all this new production is leaping forward as fast as humanly possible. Frankly, for the life of me, I don't know where all this oil is going. Drilling by the explor and production (E and P) companies continues apace and will as long as the weather allows (the unusually wet spring and summer slowed drilling activity due to too much mud. The heavy equipment couldn't contend with those conditions.) So, I think that the energy and fertilizer aspect to the grain pricing will fail to support the "beans in the teens" going forward. (That's been the Holy Grail for decades, finally accomplished. I think it's going to be an historical footnote.)

Next, we're seeing huge harvest numbers. Farmers naturally want to maximize their profits and due to recent profitable years are inclined to hold onto their grains, seeking higher prices. Methinks this will lead to a grinding market, lower and lower. Of course, the basskurd Hedgies will manipulate as they usually do, but sooner or later I think the prices will sag under $11 for beans and $4 for corn. I've backed up my opinion with a bunch of otm puts on the Jan and Mar beans and Mar corn. If and when the Hedgies reverse and push the short side, well, look out below! Plus, South Amer planting intentions etc plus things like the Chinese export quotas should add to the downward pressures. The Dollar is a wild card. Will it sag or return to a strengthening move?

Lots of factors to consider, but my reading of the Chart tea leaves leads me to puts my money and takes me chances on a return to historical norms. Could we see $9-8-7 beans and $3-2 corn? I don't see why not.

Of course that's just my opinion. I could be wrong...

Stomper