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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: how to determine price of an option

1) Decide where you think the market will go in price and then establish your best guess for the length of time you expect the move will take to get to your price.

2) Decide how much you can risk on that one trade (be prepared to lose it all) and then try to make a reasonable expectation of the profit you desire on your funds invested.

3) Answering these questions for yourself will determine the number of options you will need to purchase, the strike prices and the length of time on those options you need to get to your financial goal. The best trades are the ones where you don't buy too short a time of option life (look at 3 to 6 month duration or even longer) and your strike price is below the midpoint of the longer term trend bands.

I would shoot for paying $350-850 per option and have 4 -6 months of time. Just ball parking.

The minute you pat yourself on the back if the trade goes your way and consider yourself a market guru....SELL EVERYTHING.....

Remember....you are probably going to lose it all eventually. So, be wise. Take any winnings out and buy things that hold value....because at some point you can re-liquify with them. Or, take a trip and add to your life experience....when you die, the only thing you can take with you are the things you've experienced and the things you've learned... I'm guessing on that last bit....maybe somebody can take his Ferrari, too... who knows.... lol.

icd