Here's the news from Reuters Brazil
Ocean data indicate that there will be a strong El Niño
Monday, May 5, 2014 10:01 AM EDT *
SYDNEY Aug 5 (Reuters) - A rise in ocean temperatures and the rapid circulation of hot water to the East have raised concerns that this year's El Niño can be one of the strongest in recent decades, says an Australian meteorologist specializing in climate.
El Niño - a warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and droughts in different parts of the globe , reducing the food supply.
Most of the models forecasts indicate that El Niño may develop around mid-year , but it is still too early to assess its strength , said the World Meteorological Organization , the UN, April 15.
According to the scientist Wenju Cai , a climate expert at the Organization for the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research in Australia , the increase in surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean , El Niño over the previous years and the rapid movement of hot water to the east have increased the fear of a major change this year.
"I think this event has many of the characteristics of a strong El Niño ," said Cai .
"A strong El Niño appears early and we saw this event in the past two months, which is unusual , the wind that caused the heating is very large and there is what we call preconditioned effects , in which there must be a large amount heat in the system so that there is a large El Niño . "
He bases his conclusions on information released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the United States.
Strong El Niño could also increase the concern that many essential goods in Asia and Australia are concerned.
© Thomson Reuters 2014 All rights reserved.
http://br.reuters.com/article/busine...A4401U20140505
On April 30, I was posting :
El Nino and Sugar 11 basic things to know
including the steps:
3 . Kevin Trenberth , an expert meteorologist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder , Colorado, said that " The odds are pretty good that we're going to have a major event ."
7 . " We're pretty bullish here and we think there is a chance of a ... * 65 percent * to see at least one event of moderate - high intensity ," Todd Crawford, chief scientist at Weather Services International in Andover, Massachusetts. "There are many parallels between the next event and the strong event of 1997. *
8 . * The temperatures of the Pacific last month exceeded the level of 1997, ... said Michelle L'Heureux , a meteorologist at the weather center in College Park ...
12 . "El Nino , as well as reduce the content of sucrose in cane and hinder the crops, " could increase in the reeds diseases and pests that have already been weakened by the previous drought . "
El Nino causes extreme drought in Australia and Asia , a warmer winter in the Northeast of the United States and major floods in Latin America, going to devastate the plantations of sugar cane in all major producing countries in the world. The decline in world output could be much higher than 10 % . So the production shortfall will exhaust all stocks and the prices of sugar 11 will double .
But I guess you already knew all this .
And, then, psychologically I can only confirm the prediction that in the face of catastrophic events , only a minority shrewd moves in advance to prevent damage (or , sad to say , to take advantage of the opportunity ) .
In fact, our brain tends to reassure , we tend to dismiss the event ( which in this case would be between 3-4 weeks) , and to minimize it ( we say, but to me it will never happen ) . But an El Nino , seen as strong , completely devastate the planet and the sugar will be the raw material most affected , with damage that will be felt over time.
The True Study Centre
translated from brazian and Italian, Errors and omissions excepted
