After March of 2011 3,826 and the subsequent nine month plummet to December 2011’s 1,898, yes of course the market has been in an uptrend and has actually retraced to about 61.8%. Since Dec 2011 for Cocoa, that’s’ pretty slow.

In fact the last four months the trading range for cocoa is very uncharacteristic of cocoa.
Monthly trading range for Feb 2014 was 106, for March 2014 was 187, for April 116, and May 229. That is a snail’s pace rise, not indicative of cocoa’s active past and volatile reputation.

Due to the nature of the cocoa “crops” and market, weather is rarely if ever a true factor in pricing of cocoa. (Unless of course it is used as a made up excuse or reason to throw out to inaccurately explain why the price did what it did or trying to get business by misleading an giving the impression one knows something about the market).

If your post is indicative of Source and Procure’s expertise in commodities’ analyses you may wish to focus your attention on your other ventures.