The massive growth of shale oil production decreased OPEC capacity in setting oil prices. In a context of limited demand growth, oil prices are currently in the $80~$85 price range and unlikely to exceed $80 next year.
The major factor in declining oil prices is to look on the supply side, says Michael Hsueh in the latest oil report published by Deutsche Bank. Libyan production increased from 0.24 million barrels/day in June to 0.78 mb/d in September. At the same time, Saudi Arabia production has plateaued around 9.7 to 9.8 mb/d. As for OPEC 30 mb/d quotas, if they were still generally followed at the beginning of the year, they were exceeded by 0.7 to 0.9 mb/d in September, said the German bank.
