your focus is too narrow here. The market is one system. But one big system. It should be more like, the bear market in the dollar is 13 years old, the bull run in metals almost as long, Hmmmm, I better get my @$$ out of the metals and start accumulating UUP -- dollar index etf.
In commodities that have such a narrow trading audience there will always be exceptions. Example: it is awful tempting to stick my toe in the water and pick up a little of the ETF CORN w/ the idea of accumulating it But if 3.00 isn't the new floor for the future I may be a little early, but w/ an ETF w/ the idea of buying a little every month no bid deal if I'm a year or two early. Eventually corn will go back to $8 or $10 is my guess.
In my experience it is also best to have a modest outlook and keep your risk low. EX: yes I think rates will start to edge higher but my expectations are to profit form a 3/4 to 1-1/4 rise in the 10's. I'm not looking for armegedon.
