Insider,
I enjoyed your post.
You brought up a number of issues that have concerned me for some time.
Years ago when I was studying Economics, one of the required texts was "How To Lie With Statistics". The lessons learned from that course have guided my thinking over the years.
The BIG game is all smoke and mirrors. I marvel at the monthly non-farm payrolls report that comes out on the first Friday of every month - AND - the revisions from the previous month's report that inevitably accompany the report. The market moves in a knee jerk reaction to these reports - a game that the nimble traders take advantage of.
It has been a "given" that the market is manipulated. As to who is doing the "manipulation" - pick your own name. They all fit. The question is - how do you play the game when you know that the rules of the game are constantly in flux? The only course of action open to you is to accept this fact and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. Demand and supply factors are no longer viable.
One approach to take is to ignore the daily "noise" that occurs in the market. You are obviously a long term "investor" - from the nature of your trading, it seems to me that you trade the super - cycles. My goal is to seek out the long term trends - although I often lack the patience to stay in the trend during the normal drawdown stages. The long term trends are the only sure way to win in this game. But, they are elusive. There were long term trends in the 80's and 90's... but I have failed to detect any worth trading at this point.
One trader I know trades according to the yield curve. Now, THAT'S long term....

As for energy - I think that the game has fundamentally changed. This time it IS different.
...anyway.. I'm rambling here. Your point is well taken and it is far more coherently expressed than my attempt above.

Appreciate the post!
Best!