Hello ICD,

The spreadsheet tabulates signals the method generated on the 15-minute time frame for Jan '15. Given the method is very prescriptive, no technical indicators used, there is nothing hypothetical about it. It is actually a homework assignment. All our students are encouraged to keep track of method signals in the markets they cover for the time frames they are interested in trading. The assignment has many benefits. The end game is to get your actual/demo trades as close to the benchmark as possible. Of course this won't generally occur because the market trades around the clock and we have to sleep. A good trader can however beat the benchmark, particularly in a trending environment by allowing the second contract to run. A trader should never consider adding or altering the method until they are consistently besting the method.

What is fascinating to me is the winning percentage for those students who have completed the assignment over the years -- different environments, different markets and different time frames -- has always been very similar.

We aren't looking to profit on change, but on things staying the same. I suspect I won't live long enough to see human nature change enough to the point market behavior changes, or perhaps more realistic: we wont' need markets.

you are right about a disclaimer, how about this:

The vast majority of individuals should listen to their spouses, or significant others, and put their money in a bank, and never in a leveraged account. However, if you have the means to cover your day to day expenses and provide yourself with long-term savings, and you still feel the need to try to make money in an arena where the vast majority lose, then you had better base your decisions not on your opinions and form fit indicators, but on a method based on statistical validation -- both static and dynamic analysis / see article link below -- over decades in different markets over all the different time dimensions.

Oh we can all best the markets, but to quote Bill Williams: "Trying to change your trading without first changing your mindset is like trying to convince yourself that a merry-go-round has a destination”

I love that quote!

Salud