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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Settlement Price Vs Last Traded Price

If will depend if you plan to carry position overnight,
as the settle will be what, and how, you will get marked to the market.

So .. pay attention to how and when, the settle is configured,
... if day trading be out prior to the settle ..

from the CME web site:

Normal Daily Settlement Procedure

Daily settlement of 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures (ZT), 3-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures (Z3N), 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures (ZF), 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures (ZN), U.S. Treasury Bond futures (ZB), and Ultra T-Bond futures (UB) is determined by CME Group staff based on trading activity on CME Globex.

Lead Month

The lead month is the anchor leg for settlements and is the contract expected to be the most active.

Tier 1: If the lead month contract trades on Globex between 13:59:30 and 14:00:00 Central Time (CT), then the lead month settles to the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the trade(s) during this period.

Tier 2: If no trades in the lead month occur on Globex between 13:59:30 and 14:00:00 CT, then the most recent trade (or prior settle in the absence of a last trade price) is used.

The lead month settles to the last trade/prior settle assuming that it does not violate the low bid or the high ask in the closing range. If the low bid in the closing range is higher than the last trade/prior settlement price, then the lead month settles to that bid. If the high ask in the closing range is lower than the last trade/prior settle, then the lead month settles to that ask.

Second Month

When the lead month is the expiry month, then the second month is defined as the calendar month immediately following the lead month. When the lead month is not the expiry month, then the second month is defined as the first expiring non-lead month.

Tier 1: If the lead month-second month spread trades on Globex between 13:59:30 and 14:00:00 CT, then the spread VWAP is calculated and rounded to the spread’s nearest tradable tick. The spread differential is then applied to the lead month settlement price to derive the second month settlement, which is rounded to the outright’s nearest tradable tick.

Tier 2: If a VWAP is not available due to an absence of trades, then the most recent spread trade is applied to the lead month settlement price to derive the second month settlement, which is rounded to the outright’s nearest tradable tick.

If there are no trades in the lead month-second month calendar spread, then the prior-day spread relationship is used to derive the second month settlement.