Trout!
I thought that you were on a holiday. Shut down that machine!!! HA!

I have been thinking along the same lines - many of the commodities are at major lows.

A friend of mine only trades coffee. She trades only at the beginning of the year - then closes everything down in March - and spends her time travelling the world on long term cruises. She used to buy coffee for Starbucks years ago before heading out on her own. She lives a nice comfortable life. She focusses on one thing - and she makes a good living at it. She told me that coffee is the most heavily traded comm after Oil. I didn't know that.

I am reading a very interesting book "The New Commodity Trading Guide". I think that I mentioned this title to you. One of the chapters describes a super trader who passed on his trading strategy trading wheat as a legacy to his kids, who ignored it.
He is called "The Voice from the Tomb".

Here is his strategy.

1. Sell March Wheat on Jan 10.
2. Buy May Wheat on Feb 22.
3. Sell July Wheat on May 10.
4. Buy December Wheat on July 1
5. Sell December Wheat on September 10
6. Buy March Wheat on November 28.

Back testing results as follows:

1. 1999 - Profitable 5 out of 6
2. 2000 - 4 out of 6
3. 2001 - 6 out of 6
4. 2002 - 4 out of 6
5. 2003 - 4 out of 6
6. 2005 - 5 out of 6
7. 2006 - 4 out of 6.

Something happened in 2007 to change the odds - the crop reports started to come out later than usual - I need to re-read that section again.

Of course, it was all based on seasonality. He describes a current bean trading strategy that appears to work well - I'll do some testing.

I remember reading about a trader named Amos, in "Market Wizards" who traded cotton. He legged into a position - even when it ran against him - but he held - knowing that he would win out in the end. Trades like that often ran for years.

Buying dips in uptrends would work well with these markets. I don't know if I would buy just because it is cheap. Like Silver - it might remain cheap over a period of years.

Wayne's comment was dead on. Churning is unhealthy - for you. It would be far better to stick to the trade - as you have done with your UPP trade.

There was a trader on this board who mentioned buying Stone Energy when it was trading at $ 2.00 years ago - and rode it up to $ 50.00. Now THAT'S a trade!!

Safe travels!