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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Ronbo - Silver

Here's an analysis on Silver just published by Capital Commodities;

After a sell off from 16.40 the silver market has been consolidating around 14.00 for the past month and a half. Gold has had a bit of a rally but silver has lagged and that is what is very interesting to me. I am not as interested in the direction of silver but the ratio of silver to gold. Historically the silver ounce to gold ounce ratio has averaged about 56 since 1970. Currently one ounce of gold buys 78 ounces of silver. That puts the ratio high above the average. The ratio has only gotten to this level 5 time since 1970 and was only able to sustain it for about 3 months before it retraced back towards the average. Gold is a flight to quality and silver is more of an industrial metal and inflation gauge. So all of that being said how do you capitalize on this ratio narrowing? Well there are a few ways to accomplish that. Buy May silver futures and sell April gold futures and look to hold this position for the next three months or until the ratio narrows back to the historical average of 56. The other way to play this is with options, which will be more cost effective, and risk averse. Buy July Silver Calls 50 cents out of the money and buy April Gold puts 25 dollars out of the money. This will give you limited risk and still allow you to capitalize on the ratio narrowing.

Best!!

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Ronbo - Silver
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