4-02-16

Start with USDA and the shocking corn # 93.6 mil acres
IMHO will be the highest acreage number ...WHY
The number was as of March 1st
Start of the yr.
Dec. Corn 383 Nov. Beans 882.75
Corn Bean ratio 2.305
as of Friday's closes Dec corn for the yr -13.25 cents
Nov beans up 49.50 cents. ratio 2.52
Monday afternoon we will see planting progress report.
Delta and Tx. are behind with corn plantings..

Now the What IF
93.6 mil 168 bpa ending stocks 2729
92.2 mil 164 bpa ending stocks 2157
92.2 mil 160 bpa ending stocks 1890
91.6 mil 164 bpa ending stocks 2058
91.6 mil 160 bpa ending stocks 1724
One can see the increase in acerage and what kind of
yield reduction we will need moving forward.
Weather is going to be so important for corn acres and yields.

Ask yourself how come corn didn't even touch limit down on
Thursday? Some don't see those 93.6 mil acres.Were did half of those
5.6 mil acres come from
Ak. 330k LA 330k MS 290k TX 300k
KS 650k SD 300k ND 650k
Delta having problems too wet right now and KS is too dry.

Tech numbers
Last yr. low was 346.50 and unchanged for the yr. is 358.75
CK Sup: 345.25-340.75 possible 337.50
Res: 356.50-358.75 and 360.75-363
CZ Sup: 366.25-363.25 possible 360-357
Res: 371.75-375.50
Trade is pushing the bean corn ratio buying some bean acres. IMHO
I think beans have res. 3- 8 cents higher May and Nov. 5-7 cents higher.

CME Group Thursday said All Time record vol. for corn futures 930,250
contracts. Previous record 845,770 on 6-30-15. Open interest went up 53k
contracts. Seems to me new shorts.

Going to be an interesting week.