The weather people over blow everything they do. I've seen em find a puddle of water and act likes its an ocean of flood water while kids are playing in ankle deep water. They're pretty bad sometimes.
Was watching Irma skirt the coast of Cuba yesterday. One guy showed a pic of the eye-wall, describing where the people fly in order to take measurements...he said right here they got AT BEST 120 mph winds and here same thing...these are the areas of worst wind. That's barely into Cat 3 territory yet the keept the wind speed up to 130(they Lied) in order to call it a Cat 4.
On the other hand...you got this big hairy cat 5 churning toward you...you know from past experience they tend to turn north into Florida...what do you tell the people to do? Nothing...and then it slams full force into the east coast, possibly killing hundreds or thousands. Or, do you play it safe, because you really have no idea what it's going to do, and tell them to get the hell out?
Something of a dilemma.