Your correct, most of the time the first move out of an apex is a trap.Thus my comment... if it's obvious it's obviously wrong. However,,
I've noticed on a monthly, after a down side reaction bar (circled on da chart) price holds the area 4 to 7 bars. Were currently in the 7hr. bar.
Add to that price appears to be reacting from an oversold condition. Well see pretty soon I think.