Yeah I have to put those on my chart as a reminder...to not put on a position just before first notice. One time I was trading the SnP...the ticker on my platform was ticking really light one day and price wasn't moving much...turned out I was trading after the shift to the new contract for two days. The TnT trading platform puts them on automatically if you choose to.
I've never done any studies on price after first notice...I only know of one trader that took contracts to expiration and he did it with the Hogs on a regular basis...He's been missing since this covid thing hit...sure hope he turns up.
Well...if I were adding I would try and do it close to the failure line and us that as my stop. Otherwise it might be better to wait for the clearing of the 422 breakout line on a monthly closing basis...you would be doing it in the March contract...