Yes, it is true timing is everything as always. If there is a bull run for $100 in crude this coming week, I'm going to be toast in Rbob so I've got to pull the plug hating it every step of the way, but as a sometimes HE poker player, its like having two red kings on a Kc 2s 3s board, and the turn is a As. You thought you had a big pot coming, but the chances of you being beat with 6 players still in the pot and jamming each other, the only thing to do when it gets around to you is to fold. It isn't easy, and I hate myself for such poor timing, but without a blowoff by Tuesday's close, I'm wrong that's all there is to it.
At present, the sharp late rally in the energies on 31st could be a combination of panic short covering ahead of the weekend, book squaring ahead of the quarter end, or even technical buying because $90 failed to breach on the downside on March Crude.
The last reason is the one that worries me the most funny enough!
I shirked at taking the long side of bonds, because despite two bounces down at these levels, I think there is serious chart damage there, and I'm wondering where the big fed bid is that prices have slipped so much since the announcement of QE2.
Euros and Gold I've been range trading for weeks now, making more profits than losses so I'm comfortable with that for the time being.
ES YM I won't be touching until this market replaces the batteries! How long has it been now since the last 20+ move in S&P? Moves like that used to be at least once a week not long ago, but of late, it is almost changeless closes around the 11,500 mark on dow for weeks... I see 9650 and before that 10725 as the levels to watch on dow, which I must confess I follow more than S&P in any case, mainly because the wife prefers it.
I remember back in 2000 when I got burned something rotten shorting 5 nasdaqs on the "hot air" rally that of course took it to the moon. It didn't help me that I was proven right less than 3 months after I took a huge hit somewhere near 4500 if I recall. I think it went to around 5000 then collapsed, so staying in would have probably taken another 5 years off my life, and I might have even come out there and lost even more. I have not traded Nasdaq since needless to say. I don't want to see $5 gas happen for the same reason we saw 5000 nasdaq! There are no fundemental reasons for it, only speculator froth & technicals. The big money in the new year will decide what happens next, so I hope that if I am wrong, it won't be for too much by tuesday.