Hi Lee
I wouldn't want anyone to short corn just because of my comments either.
I think we'll have a drop at least down to the $500 mark, but at this point the final price point to where we will stop would be just a guess. The time of the turn will be more important to me, but I think we have the highs for the year.
I included in my original post of March 7th some of the reasons I thought corn was topping. TIME and PRICE are intimately connected. The contract lows for nearly all corn contracts is Sept 4th 2009. If you'll notice March the 4th is exactly 180 degrees of the earth's orbit from Sept. 4th. This means march 4th is as far away from Sept. 4th as possible before the earth begins to return to its original point. Price is similar. July 2011 contract made low of $3.83 on 9-8-09 and rallies 360 cents to 3-4-11 top of $7.43. 360 cents means those 2 prices (3.83 and 7.43) are same exact point on circle.
My intent is not just to draw attention to the corn market for people to watch it. Rather to learn what happens at these extremes in price when the time has run its course. A close look at the information in the post of March 7th is an example of time and price being equivalent. Below is a copy of that message.
I believe corn has made a major top. I have many reasons influencing my decision. I'll list a few of the things that matter to me. First notice that march 4th 2011 is 540 degrees (1 and half) from 9-8-09. The march 2011 contract made a low of $3.66 o 9-8-09. The top on Friday was just a little higher than doubling of this price ($7.34). July 2011 contract made low of $3.83 on 9-8-09 and rallies 360 cents to 3-4-11 top of $7.43. 360 cents means those 2 prices (3.83 and 7.43) are same exact point on circle. December 2011 contact squares out in price and time. It rallied 240 cents in 238 days from 6-29-10 low to 2-22-11 top.
Looking at the weekly chart, from the major low of $2.90 on 12-5-08 corn has rallied to $7.35. The midpoint of this move on the circle of 360 degrees is 692 or 332. This is exactly where mars was on Friday march 4th 2011. Time and price also square out from major tops such as the 7-12-96 top of $5.54. It is 175 months and 175 cents to 7.29. From the major low of $1.86 on 11-28-05, the market has rallied $5.49 cents in 548 weeks.
There are other more complicated planetary cycle reasons to expect a turn, but in any case, I think corn is going to have a MAJOR drop.
