Hi Lee. NG has been riding its technical channel for the last....what year or so, and so has been more of a day, or few day, trade, for me, anyway. A large part of the spring/summer market is weather related and not secular, so as a meteorlogist I make calls using climatology and what I believe to be the best forecasts available. For me, an outside long bet would be one based on the the hurricane frequency forecasts made by NOAA and others earlier in the spring. These are not terribly reliable forecasts. An above average season does in no way imply a big Gulf hurricane and shut-in production, but it does suggest a somewhat increased probability of that happening. But I wouldn't strike until I saw some convincing evidence of a big one developing, which has a lead time of 10 days or, often, much less.
Good luck with your paper calls. I bet a few K today on a sharp jump tomorrow after the EIA data hits the wires.
Chris