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TFC Commodity Trading Forum

Re: Sept Nat Gas/Continues to Rebound/Trades

Hi Trades,
Thanks for the chart/comments.
I held off on comments till end of day. Didn't really have much to add earlier.

The chart still paints the best picture, even Coral now agrees. Demand should still
outstrip supply for at least another month.

Why so much attention is paid to the EIA report beats me !! But it is the only
"measure of supply/demand" and even if the build numbers are correct, the market is
not paying attention !!!!

The EIA methodology for coming up with that report is so
convoluted that there is plenty of room for "error" if a desire exists to try to keep Ng
prices down.

There are only 147 storage site operators of 399 storage sites. I think
they "stick the dipstick" in at least 70 of them each week (the specific 70 varies as
I understand it) and they "pay a bunch of people" to "statistically fiddle" with the
numbers to come up with the rest !! Why don't they "dipstick them all" and get it over
with - not a very big number and then a bunch of those 130K/89% retirement folks [cited in
an earlier post] won't be needed.

I could do that Thursday report in a DAY if those 147 operators of 399 sites were required
to submit that EIA form 912 electronically [and only our Gov't would pretend that they cannot
do it !!!]

Any way, the Autopsy !!!
Market went down sharply and a fair amout as expected on the report showing a larger than
expected build (less demand) but it recovered fairly quickly. On re-open, still held around 4.4
until early morning.

I almost went long around 7am at about 4.395 but chickened out. Next stop was about 4.45 and
I thought, "too good to be true, it's coming down" so with that, up it went again.

Went long at 4.5 and suffered for a couple of hours as it waffled around, but finally had enough
headroom to set a breakeven stop and ignore it !! So and hour later, I get stopped out. Now it is
about to close at 4.555 !!!

So, with all of this, had I just "stuck with the chart" I would have had a nice day.

So, we will see what Sun. night/Monday brings, but I suspect this market will
continue on up for a bit. Breaking 4.9 is a bit further off, but there is a lot of
room between here and there. I have the "alarm clock set" to "wake Wayne" at 4.8 !!

Thanks, Lee
If what I see in the "preview screen" posts, the "text formatting" is atrocious !!